My Latest Twitter Updates

  • The polling booth is now a little bit wet… #vicvotes #
  • @sexenheimer As long as you number correctly and don't identify yourself, you can write an essay if you want. #
  • @BigBilly3 That's why I used a capital "L"…! #
  • The deed is done – one of my latest votes ever. Hardly any time left to do it again. #vicvotes #
  • Very sedate at my local polling booth. http://twitpic.com/3akycl #
  • http://twitpic.com/3akyi8 #
  • Will she be left standing on the corner tonight? http://twitpic.com/3akyqt #
  • Some Labor bunting in Bentleigh. http://twitpic.com/3akyyr #
  • Some Liberal bunting in Bentleigh. http://twitpic.com/3akz7y #
  • That other lot are here too. http://twitpic.com/3akzfw #
  • Sky News reporting Labor concerned about Speaker Jenny Lindell's seat of Carrum (6.7%) & Minister Allan in Bendigo East (5.45%) #vicvotes #
  • RT @downesy: Labor had some problems with its prepositions at my local booth http://yfrog.com/mce100j #
  • @downesy That's appalling! It's not even a technical error, just meaningless. #
  • With 15 minutes to closing of the polls, it's a lot like Aug 21. Anyone who says they know what's happening should be disregarded. #vicvotes #
  • However, if those 3 polls yesterday & this morning are correct, Baillieu wins. A Labor primary vote in the low to mid-30s & they're gone. #
  • The Nats seem very confident about Gippsland East and have spent a lot of treasure there to get it back from Ingram. #vicvotes #
  • Hard to see any change in Mildura but the Nats have been spending up big to hold back the independents: http://auspol.info/gAniBv #vicvotes #
  • Let the counting begin… #vicvotes #
  • SKY NEWS EXIT POLL: Coalition 54, ALP 46. #victvotes #
  • Sky exit poll primaries ALP 35, Coalition 48, Greens 12, Others 5. #vicvotes #
  • That's a landslide Liberal win if those numbers hold. #vicvotes #
  • Sky Better Premier question: Brumby 43, Baillieu 35. #vicvotes #
  • @seamus_polsci It's on now… #
  • That 15 minutes conversation with the Fin didn't amount to much but I think I *did* utter the quote… http://twitpic.com/3alg9l #vicvotes #
  • And it looks like the Fin will have to learn how to spell Baillieu now… http://twitpic.com/3alg9l #vicvotes #
  • Poll Bludger on the the exit polls and other rumours: http://auspol.info/eQCrzE #vicvotes #
  • @Captainsuburbia Why not Sky? Amateur! #
  • So Essendon is in play? When it swings, Labor is on the nose. Anti-Madden reaction makes sense. #vicvotes #
  • Jenny Macklin suggests Craig Ingram may hold balance of power again, as in 1999. More likely he loses his seat? #vicvotes #
  • The tide of yellow from the last decade may recede further tonight: http://auspol.info/f4IWeV #vicvotes #
  • On Sky, Federal Minister Brendan O'Connor warns against exit polls, cites the South Australian experience last March. #vicvotes #
  • @gnoll110 No – more to do with polling methodology. Despite what some conspiracists will tell you, we don't have electoral fraud. #
  • @RicRaftis Baillieu by a mile. Even though the figures are early, all the signs are there. Exit polls are catastrophic for Brumby. #
  • Antony Greens says very early figures showing 7% swing in Melbourne, 6% in regional Victoria. #vicvotes #
  • @gnoll110 You're missing the point – exit polls have got nothing to do with the electoral process. Aust is world leader in clean elections. #
  • Richard Marles says 6 booths in Ballarat East show 6% swing against Labor, still not enough to lose. About 5% swing in Ripon. #vicvotes #
  • WIth 3.53% of the statewide vote counted, the ALP primary vote is 29.29%, Greens 9.69%, Libs 35.84%, Nats 16.37%. #vicvotes #
  • Given that the Nats primary vote will eventually drop to well less than half of that, that's why early figures should be treated cautiously. #
  • @gnoll110 Ah, sorry, I see what you mean. I don't think we do that here! #
  • @WolvesHQ Libs. #
  • Richard Marles says Joe Helper in Ripon with 13/47 booths counted has 5% swing against Labor – certain loss. #vicvotes #
  • 9% counted in Gembrook and the Liberals have it all but sewn up on 61%. Certain gain. http://auspol.info/icw2Tj #vicvotes #
  • Bellarine showing an 8% swing to Libs – Minister Lisa Neville will lose that. #vicvotes #
  • With 17% counted in Gippsland East, it is now clear that sitting Independent Craig Ingram has lost to the Nationals. #vicvotes #
  • RT @abcnews: @AntonyGreenABC says swing to Coalition so patchy, result won't be clear until preferences come through. #vicvotes #
  • 7.30pm – now the real business starts. The swing is on, somewhat patchy, will be clearer in next hour. #vicvotes #
  • Greg Hunt tells Sky Libs doing well in outer suburban seats outside the margin needed for victory. #vicvotes #
  • There are no results in from Burwood, Forest Hill, Mitcham, Mordialloc… crucial areas that could turn the patchy swing into an easy win. #
  • 5% counted in Macedon and the Libs have a 9.5% swing – they need 8.2% to win this from the ALP. Another to watch. #vicvotes #
  • RT @774melbourne: Craig Ingram concedes seat of Gippsland East to National's Tim Bull. #vicvotes #
  • Also no figures from Mt. Waverley yet – the Libs are well on the way and some of the most vulnerable seats haven't begun to report yet. #
  • 11.8% swing to Libs in Seymour with 5.6% counted – they need 6.7% to win. #vicvotes #
  • Bentleigh has 4 booths in – a swing to Libs but too early to tell. On a uniform swing, if the Libs win Bentleigh they win govt. #vicvotes #
  • Sky News coverage is behind on crucial news – they say Ingram struggling in Gippsland East. ABC reports he's already conceded. #vicvotes #
  • And there are no figures posted yet for Melbourne, Brunswick, Richmond or Northcote – seat Greens competitive in. #vicvotes #
  • 28% counted in Forest Hill – Lib on 54.7% – Kirstie Marshall defeated. #vicvotes #
  • Richard Marles says ALP's Joanne Duncan is holding on in Macedon. #vicvotes #
  • Jacinta Allan hanging on in Bendigo East – swing around 2-3% not enough to unseat her. #vicvotes #
  • 22% counted in Prahran – 6.4% swing to Libs – Clem Newton-Brown ahead by about 2%. #vicvotes #
  • Very early figures in Brunswick – 2.6% counted – shows ALP just ahead of Greens on 50.5%. #vicvotes #
  • With 10.86% counted in Seymour, the Libs are head on 57.9% – ABC computer predicts final result around 55% – Lib gain. #vicvotes #
  • It is now clear that the Brumby government is on the brink of defeat. The Liberals have 9 gains from ALP & one from Independent. #vicvotes #
  • Vic Electoral Commission shows 38.92% of the vote counted – ALP primary 35.47%, Libs 37.72%, Nats 8.52%, Greens 10.55%. #vicvotes #
  • Jeff Kennett's old seat of Burwood, lost when he quit in 1999, returns to the Liberal Party. http://auspol.info/e57mjB #vicvotes #
  • ABC shows 8.3% swing in Bentleigh – enough to defeat Rob Hudson – but only 4 booths in. #vicvotes #
  • Antony Green says he has the Liberals on 43 seats, just 2 short of an absolute majority. (88 seats in Leg Assembly) #vicvotes #
  • ABC computer shows 5.2% swing to the Coalition statewide. #vicvotes #
  • ABC computer has ALP 33 seats, Libs 35, Nats 10. #vicvotes #
  • There is absolutely no doubt now that Ted Baillieu will form a majority government next week. #vicvotes #
  • With 18.77% counted in Bentleigh, the Lib candidate is ahead on 51.5%, a swing f 7.8%, more than is needed. #vicvotes #
  • Reports earlier today that the ALP was worried about Justin Madden in Essendon haven't come to pass – 8% swing but hanging in. #vicvotes #
  • A very close result in Cranbourne. ALP's Perera has swing against him of 10% but is 1.2% ahead with 27% counted. Worth watching. #vicvotes #
  • Stories of Labor in trouble in Footscray also not borne out by latest figures. 42% counted, Thomson winning easily. #vicvotes #
  • 60% counted in Ivanhoe and the ALP seems to have survived the sudden departure and attacks from its former member. #vicvotes #
  • Interesting that Bruce Hawker on Sky isn't convinced it's over yet. Sees country results as encouraging for govt. #vicvotes #
  • AEC computer shows 50.41% counted. Primaries: ALP 36.24%, Libs 37%, Nats 8.2% (Coalition 45.2%), Greens 10.62%. #vicvotes #
  • Richard Marles saying ALP needs to win Bentleigh, Mordialloc and some other metro seats to survive. It won't happen. #vicvotes #
  • Frankston is very close but Libs ahead. 48% counted, Libs on 50.45%. #vicvotes #
  • @DamienPatterson About half by the looks. #
  • So in 1999, the regions delivered govt to Bracks. Melbourne arrived late in 2002 and left early in 2010. #vicvotes #
  • @theburgerman Despite the wavering and qualifying of some, yes. #
  • In Hawthorn, Ted Baillieu has 60.86% of the primary vote, ALP 21.69%, Greens 16.38%. #vicvotes #
  • In Mitcham, Minister Tony Robinson defeated. First won seat in by-election in 1997, one of first cracks in the Kennett wall. #vicvotes #
  • The remnants of 1999 are gone now. All former independent seats now held by Coalition. Kennett's Burwood returned to fold. #vicvotes #
  • I wonder if Costello & Kroger still think it was a bad idea to preference the Greens last? Another internal win for Howard? #vicvotes #
  • ABC is showing 5.3% swing statewide to the Coalition. ALP primary vote down 6.4%, most gone to coalition. #vicvotes #
  • ABC predicting Coalition 48 seats, ALP 40 – a majority of 7 on the floor of the Legislative Assembly. #vicvotes #
  • With the loss of Janie Munt in Mordialloc, we will never again see campaign material like this: http://twitpic.com/109lbt #vicvotes #
  • That should have been "Janice" in the last tweet, not "Janie"… #vicvotes #
  • Ex Labor MP tells me more people than she can ever remember refused to take a how-to-vote card today in Melb's eastern suburbs. #vicvotes #
  • @firstdogonmoon This is true! #
  • @firstdogonmoon It's doubly funny because her opponent at the time was the execrable Geoff Leigh. #
  • And here's Daniel Andrews on News24 – will he put his name forward for the leadership this time? #vicvotes #
  • RT @tonyowright: Labor people saying it's likely to be a hung parliament, down to Bentleigh. #vicvotes #
  • That line is catching on… RT @BBCWorld: Labour lost its way – Ed Miliband http://bbc.in/glmPKm || #auspol #vicvotes #
  • I just stuck my head out the front door… it's all quiet in the electorate of Bentleigh. Andrews says ALP is "competitive" here. #vicvotes #
  • David Davis says in Bentleigh it's Libs 11,892 to ALP 11,175 with one booth still to come. #vicvotes #
  • @Captainsuburbia And you lost your member as well… #
  • Deputy Premier Rob Hulls speaking at Broadmeadows… says the result will come down to pre-poll votes. #vicvotes #
  • Hulls: Our government has been sent a very clear message…there are many things we need to do better…4th terms hard to achieve. #vicvotes #
  • @prestontowers Yes, independents got about 12-15 each, ALP 13, Nats 48 – wins easily on preferences. #
  • Hulls: The most likely result now, I believe, is a hung Parliament. We won't know the result for many days. #vicvotes #
  • All this talk of the final booth in Bentleigh turning things around is nonsense. Very homogenous vote here. #vicvotes #
  • Antony Green says the voter turnout in Mildura is 59%. A quarter have voted early. Voter turnout overall is significantly lower. #vicvotes #
  • @xposya Yes, I can't see enough of a turnaround in pre-polls and postals. Possible but unlikely. #
  • @GhostWhoVotes Hehehe… maybe the week after… #
  • @adullard And if neither side nominates a Speaker… #
  • Very interesting to look at the figures in the outer east of Melbourne – they are of 1992 dimensions for the ALP. See Kilsyth, F'tree Gully. #
  • LIberal MP David Davis sees 44 seats secure for the Coalition with several possibilities to move beyond that. #vicvotes #
  • @sspencer_63 Yes. And I can't see enough changing with pre-polls/postals. #
  • RT @sspencer_63: Best thing about Vic election? Last time those frauds who run betting on polls will ever be taken seriously. #vicvotes #
  • Deputy Premier Rob Hulls introduces John Brumby at Broadmeadows… #vicvotes #
  • Brumby: I've said it would be a long night, a cliffhanger… this was always going to be tight and close… #vicvotes #
  • Brumby: The most likely result is a hung Parliament…. #vicvotes #
  • Brumby: We have delivered strong and stable govt… given the opportunity to govern again we will provide good govt again. #vicvotes #
  • RT @HutchHussein: True believers welcome Brumby! #vicvotes http://twitpic.com/3ann67 #
  • Brumby: I believe our State is headed in the right direction but there are things we can do better. We have heard the message. #vicvotes #
  • @murpharoo In Chinese? #
  • Brumby pays tribute to Tony Robinson in Mitcham – Robinson was Brumby's first by-election success in 1997 against Kennett. #vicvotes #
  • RT @HutchHussein: Brumby acknowledges Maxine Morand & her role in abortion decriminalization. #vicvotes #
  • Brumby insists the result is unclear and unknown until all the votes are counted. Says "the work starts tomorrow"… #vicvotes #
  • John Brumby speaking to supporters at Broadmeadows Town Hall: http://twitpic.com/3anqgh #vicvotes #
  • "All roads lead to Bentleigh." #vicvotes #
  • @LindaWhiteASU See the Tasmanian Governor's statement from earlier this year – the definitive statement. #
  • Peter Ryan, Nationals Leader, claims a great day for the Nationals… says legitimacy of government has been challenged & diminished. #
  • @downesy I've finally landed in a seat that matters! #
  • Victorian Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu is speaking to his supporters in Melbourne…. thanks "the people of Victoria"… #vicvotes #
  • Baillieu: The final election outcome may still be uncertain. A voice: No it's not. #vicvotes #
  • Baillieu: There has been a huge swing against the Labor government… Labor's vote has collapsed… #vicvotes #
  • Baillieu: Many Labor MPs have only survived on the back of Green preferences… (much booing)… #vicvotes #
  • Baillieu: The people have removed the authority of this government… Brumby's status is as a caretaker government. #vicvotes #
  • Baillieu: This has been a stunning result…a result which is a function of this govt's failure over 11 long years… #vicvotes #
  • Baillieu: It's a result of projects like Myki… the desal plant… smart meters… the north-south pipeline… a list of mismanagement… #
  • Baillieu: The final outcome will indeed depend on counting over the next few days… we have to wait… #vicvotes #
  • Baillieu: In those undecided seats, every single vote is going to count… I encourage everyone to get involved in the scrutiny… #vicvotes #
  • Baillieu: I am humbled by the support we have received today… I'm very proud to lead a united, determined team… #vicvotes #
  • Baillieu: The election may not yet be over but we stand ready to govern. #vicvotes #
  • LIke Brumby, Baillieu is now launching into his plan for the future… possible speeches for a new election campaign… #vicvotes #
  • RT @AndrewBartlett: Baillieu mentioned Labor MPs who won due to Greens preferences but forgot to mention those who won on Lib preferences. #
  • @vlietman Thanks. #
  • Summarising #vicvotes ALP started with 55 seats in 88 seat Parliament. 45 seats are needed to form a majority govt with a 1-seat majority. #
  • ALP has lost 11 seats: Forest Hill, Gembrook, Mt. Waverley, Seymour, Burwood, Frankston, South Barwon, Mitcham, Prahran, Mordialloc, Carrum. #
  • Libs started with 23 seats, have won 11 = 34. Nats started with 9, have won Gippsland East from Independent = 10. Coalition total = 44. #
  • Assume Albert Park will be held by Labor after a scare. There are 4 undecideds: Macedon, Monbulk, Narre Warren North & Bentleigh. #
  • The ALP leads in 3 undecideds: Macedon 51.1, Monbulk 51.94, Narre Warren North 52.04. Libs lead in Bentleigh 51.1 or 624 votes. #
  • Just about all of the 11 seats the ALP has lost show the Libs leading by healthy margins, unlikely to change with pre-polls/postals. #
  • The closest result in the seats Labor lost is Seymour where the Libs are on 51.82%. #
  • Despite the high number of pre-polls and postals, experience suggests it's hard to see these losses returning to the ALP. #
  • So it does look like "all roads lead to Bentleigh" where the Libs lead by 624 votes. If the Libs win Bentleigh they win the election 45-43. #
  • Assuming no other seats change with pre-polls and postals, if the ALP wins Bentleigh the House will be tied 44-44. #
  • A danger for Labor is Macedon. The VEC website shows Labor ahead on 51.1% (719 votes). The ABC website says ALP leads by 8 votes. #
  • @guruann Where did you get 51.57 from? VEC and ABC sites have different numbers? #
  • The VEC website has ALP ahead in Bentleigh by 213 votes. ABC website says Libs ahead by 624. So don't ask me! #
  • @guruann Should be okay then, even with pre-polls and postals? #
  • @guruann Experience tells us 900+ ahead on election night is unlikely to be overturned. Possible but unlikely. #
  • @yossi_01 Convention and practice says if 44-44 Brumby would go to the Parlt as Premier. Then they have to elect a Speaker… #
  • Correction to earlier tweet: VEC has Libs ahead by 213 votes in Bentleigh. The ABC says Libs lead by 624. #vicvotes #
  • .@LeslieCannold I corrected that tweet last night – both ABC and VEC have Libs ahead in Bentleigh but by different amounts. #vicvotes #

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