My Latest Twitter Updates

  • The Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook 2010-11 (MYEFO) has been released: http://auspol.info/cMu6Jj #auspol #
  • MEYEFO forecasts real GDP to grow by 3.25% in 2010-11 and 3.75% in 2011-12. http://auspol.info/cMu6Jj #
  • MYEFO forecats unemployement to fall to 4.75% by June 2011 and 4.5% by June 2012. http://auspol.info/cMu6Jj #
  • MYEFO forecasts headline inflation to be 2.75% through to June 2011 and 3% through the year to June 2012. http://auspol.info/cMu6Jj #
  • MYEFO says the budget is still expected to be in surplus in 2012-13 & net debt to peak at 6.4% of GDP in 2011-12. http://auspol.info/cMu6Jj #
  • MYEFO says "net debt in major advanced economies is expected to reach an average 90% of GDP in 2015, 14 times higher" than Australia's. #
  • MYEFO says the budget is projected to reach a surplus of 1% of GDP in 2016-17. Net debt projected to return to zero in 2018-19. #
  • MYEFO says the fiscal deficit for 2010-11 estimated to be $41.9 billion (3% of GDP). http://auspol.info/cMu6Jj #
  • MYEFO says "there has been a marked softening in the revenue outlook in recent months", mainly in capital gains & company tax. #
  • MYEFO says stronger than expected wage increases have increased personal income tax by $3.4 billion over 4 years to 2013-14. #
  • Stats on Aust govt taxation & spending show the Whitlam govt to be the lowest in both categories in past 35 years. http://auspol.info/cfUO6M #
  • Wayne Swan or Karl Bitar at 12.30pm? This could be tricky… #
  • Karl Bitar, ALP Nat Sec, is about to address the Press Club on the election result. This was Tim Gartrell in 2007: http://auspol.info/aTL7Ma #
  • Treasurer Wayne Swan is holding a press conference in Canberra on the release of the Mid-Year Economic Forecast and Outlook… #auspol #
  • Swan: Strong growth, falling unemployment and a growing pipeline of investment is forecast. "We are in a far superior position." #auspol #
  • Swan: On the fiscal outlook, "we are in very good nick" – back to surplus sooner, debt peaking at much lower levels than other countries. #
  • Swan: Tax revenue revised down by $10 billion. Despite this "hit to revenues", still on track to get back to surplus. #
  • Swan: Real spending growth over next 2 years is 0.2% of GDP – "fastest fiscal consolidation in 40 years". #auspol #
  • @theburgerman He was one once. #
  • @theburgerman The Department of Management, no less… #
  • Ok, election analysis trumps everything else… over to Bitar… #
  • Liberal Federal Director Brian Loughnane will address the Press Club tomorrow. This is what he said in 2007: http://auspol.info/bU3eSa #
  • Bitar: This increased the potential for a protest vote and lessened analysis of Abbott. #
  • Bitar: During the campaign, national polls were quite accurate but didn't reflect differences in individual seats. #auspol #
  • Bitar: People wanted the govt back but they didn't want to reward us for our time in govt – protest voters becoming more prevalent now. #
  • Bitar: Parties can no longer rely on their base vote and just go after undecided voters – a dramatic shift in Aust. politics. #auspol #
  • Bitar: Leaked polling two days out from election day shocked campaign staff. If I couldn't convince them, how could I convince the public? #
  • Bitar: Expectations of Gillard were so high that if she had an average day she was marked down. #auspol #
  • Bitar: Contrary to popular belief, we only had a small margin of 1.7% – thumping victory in 2007 didn't deliver thumping majority. #auspol #
  • Bitar: There was a considerable amount of government dissatisfaction – expectations not met, hopes raised too high. #auspol #
  • Bitar: We failed to communicate our achievements – we can't be accused of not achieving much during that term of government. #auspol #
  • Bitar: We were doing too much too quickly – public couldn't absorb what we were doing. #auspol #
  • Bitar: The 24-hour media cycle worked against us – news now has no durability at all – midday announcements are judged within an hour or two #
  • Bitar: Most significant achievement of first term was keeping Aust out of recession – most don't appreciate how dangerous the crisis was. #
  • Bitar: But it was a true political conundrum – no-one overseas could understand how our govt could be under pressure. #auspol #
  • Bitar: As 2010 passed, the GFC receded even further – plus we had issues like asylum seekers, BER, insulation, RSPT, etc #
  • Bitar: We entered the election "with a few political problems" #
  • Bitar: We had a strong frame about moving forward but this became impossible "because of leaks and Mark Latham". #auspol #
  • Bitar: Most commentary post-election underestimates the impact of the leaks… they sucked up oxygen and portrayed disunity. #auspol #
  • Bitar: Swing in Qld was 9% and 6% in NSW after the leaks – 22 seats lost in those states alone. #auspol #
  • Bitar: The news on Sat 7 Aug was the worst possible – disunity in the weeks leading up to an election is the worst possible. #auspol #
  • Bitar: The day after Latham confronted Gillard my wife said to me, "if it wasn't for you, I'd be voting Greens this election". #auspol #
  • Bitar: A cabinet minister told me his wife said something similar – leaks and Latham were deadly. Only Abbott's unelectability saved us. #
  • Bitar: Abbott's stumbles over WorkChoices, no not meaning no, broadband, etc weren't dissected as much as our mistakes. #
  • RT @MarkTobinSydney: Karl Bitar admits Epping to Parramatta announcement was a mistake. #npc #
  • Bitar gives credit to Loughnane for his strategic victory in keeping Abbott under control. #auspol #
  • Bitar: Swing to Greens caused by 2 factors: a long term structural shift in the inner cities AND a protest vote against the ALP. #auspol #
  • Bitar: They didn't want to reward us but they didn't want to support Tony Abbott. #auspol #
  • Bitar: Liberals don't seem interested in self-assessment… Abbott has defined them by what they are against, not what they are for. #
  • Bitar: I don't accept the premature judgement that the ALP is in decline… but we need national reforms to our structure. #auspol #
  • Bitar: The ALP is a 21st century party with a 19th century branch structure. #auspol #
  • Bitar: One of the most beneficial avenues is online – we have invested much in an online structure but more can be done. #auspol #
  • Bitar: We now fear debates because we appear being portrayed in the media as divided. Not one debate at national conference. #auspol #
  • Bitar: As our membership shrinks the less attention MPs pay to it and so the spiral continues… #auspol #
  • Bitar: The party must set up a standing committee on party reform – an ongoing issue not just something for tough times. #auspol #
  • Question to Bitar: Can the modern-day ALP any longer lay claim to being a party of mates? #auspol #
  • She's a journalist? #auspol #
  • Bitar: We faced loss of 22 seats after the leaks – Gillard came back from that because people believed she had an agenda of reform. #
  • Cronin to Bitar: What responsibility do you take for "the worst campaign ever" – can you name a worse campaign? #auspol #
  • Bitar: Richardson still knows how to get a head line. #auspol #
  • Bitar: The fact that Libs changed strategy 3 times during the campaign shows they were reading the election the same way we were. #
  • Tillett to Bitar: You haven't mentioned Rudd once… and what can be done about the ALP's decline in Western Australia? #
  • Bitar: We weren't happy with WA result – need to redouble effort – resource tax and protest vote from WA. #auspol #
  • Bitar on Rudd: He achieved more in one term than Howard did in his entire time in govt – eg. trades training compared to school flags… #
  • Bitar on Greens: Don't underestimate the proportion of that vote which was a protest vote… the Greens harness it, as in Victoria now. #
  • Bitar: 10-20% of the Greens vote is former coalition voters… Greens are a party like any other, they have factions… #
  • Mark Davis question: What does the research show about why people were dissatisfied? CPRS? Why was rail link a mistake? #
  • Bitar: Because Howard was there for so long, expectations were so high – we couldn't match those expectations. #auspol #
  • In other words, Bitar isn't going to answer the specific question – just this waffle about expectations. #auspol #
  • No, here it is…. on CPRS – it described action on climate change for most people; when we moved away from it they saw it as a letdown. #
  • Bitar: Epping rail link fed into a cynical media attitude – probably didn't win or lose votes but sucked up the oxygen for 2 days. #
  • Question from @murpharoo about Real Julia and Gillard's problems validating the previous regime – wasn't the legacy issue a key issue? #
  • Bitar: Real Julia announcement was strategically correct but tactically poor… we didn't know whether the leaks were going to stop. #
  • Bitar: We didn't run away from first term policies -eg broadband, education revolution, health. #
  • Bitar: Eliminate the leaks and Latham and you have a different result. #auspol #
  • Sid Maher to Bitar: Are you too reliant on focus groups? Can you tell us in 3 or 4 sentences what the Labor Party is about? #auspol #
  • @LaurieOakes This is a deeply shallow performance from Bitar. #
  • RT @tegangilchrist: Find a copy of @karlbitar address to the National Press Club here: http://auspol.info/aXykKQ #npc #auspol #
  • Bitar: The Labor Party has always been for a strong economy… equal opportunity… #auspol #
  • @mikestuchbery Ah! Simply the magic of television. #
  • @Rubbachook Twitter logo? #
  • A uniform swing, win Bentleigh, and the Libs win govt. The leaflets are rolling in: http://twitpic.com/357j3f http://twitpic.com/357jce #
  • Hockey: A govt without a core… incompetence… lack of ticker… budget clearly deteriorating… debt growing out to $90bn… #auspol #
  • @xposya Indeed! I'll let you call them. Note my own careful choice of words here: http://auspol.info/aEOB1z #
  • The transcript of Karl Bitar's speech is almost unreadable on the ALP website, but it's tidied up here with audio: http://auspol.info/cGW3nS #
  • Rudd crashed Clinton TV event; pulls out of regional summit in Japan http://auspol.info/bu6ND4 – the leaks are going the other way now? #
  • @Cracked_Canoe I think it's started… #

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